The best buyers are underwriting more conservatively than they did a few years ago.
The 2026 Self Storage Almanac reports a disciplined 2026 underwriting environment: buyers are projecting 2 percent to 4 percent annual revenue growth, 3 percent to 5 percent expense inflation, economic occupancy two to four points below physical occupancy, and exit cap rates 25 to 50 basis points above acquisition cap rates. That is a major shift from pandemic-era optimism. It forces investors to ask whether value creation comes from real operational improvement or just aggressive assumptions. In today’s market, a deal should still make sense when rents grow modestly and expenses keep rising. Automatic appreciation is no longer assumed.