Why do construction starts matter more than headlines?

A market can look healthy today and still become risky if too much new space is already in motion.

In markets tracked by Matrix for at least 24 months, the under-construction pipeline declined 6.2 percent quarter over quarter to 49.79 million net rentable square feet and 17.3 percent year over year. That decline is encouraging, but it does not eliminate risk. Most of that inventory still needs to be delivered and absorbed. Construction starts also remain a leading indicator. If starts fall, future competitive pressure may ease. If starts rebound because rates grow and capital or construction gets cheaper, supply risk can return. For investors, the underwriting lesson is clear: do not evaluate occupancy and rent today without also evaluating what is scheduled to open tomorrow. Unless a municipality has barriers in place- such as a moratorium- an errant developer can throw a wrench into an entire market. We try to leave “meat on the bone” when looking at a market. If the equilibrium supply index for a market is 7- meaning 7 net rentable square feet per capita results in an average occupancy of 85%- we try to have the supply index come in at less than the equilibrium AFTER our development is accounted for. We’d like to see room for another 1 or 2 self storage facilities before the equilibrium supply index is hit so that we have a protective buffer to our lease up or stabilized occupancy. If we reach stabilized occupancy and there are no new developments to erode the buffer, then expansion can be considered.