Which real estate asset class performs best in a recession?
It is difficult to determine which real estate asset class will perform best during a recession, as real estate markets are influenced by many factors, including the overall economy, local market conditions, and the specific asset type. However, the following 4 asset classes are generally considered to be more resilient during a recession, with one clear winner.
Essential use properties: Properties with essential uses such as supermarkets, drug stores, and grocery stores tend to be more resilient during a recession as people still need to purchase necessities even during tough economic times.
Multi-Family Housing: The demand for rental housing typically remains relatively stable during a recession, making multi-family housing a relatively safe investment during tough economic times.
Industrial Properties: Industrial properties such as warehouses and distribution centers are often less affected by a recession, as the demand for goods and services continues even during a downturn.
Self-Storage: Self-storage facilities are considered to be the most recession resilient real estate asset. People may need to store their belongings due to downsizing or other economic factors. Historically, self storage has performed the best of any real estate asset in recessions. From 2007-2009, self-storage dropped -3.8% in comparison to the S&P’s -22.0%. This was the smallest drop of any real estate asset class. Self storage had some of its best performing years during the COVID-19 Pandemic when some other real estate asset classes performed poorly. According to Trepp, a Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities research firm, of the 1,700 CMBS loans made to self storage in the first 3 quarters of 2020 only 3 were delinquent– that is a 0.17% delinquency rate . During the same time multi-family was defaulting at a rate 1,800% higher or 18x that of self storage. Self storage has the highest return on investment in comparison to any other real estate asset class. From 1994-2017, storage returned an annual average of 17.43%. Based on that annual average, $100,000 invested in 1994 would be over $4,000,000 today.
It is important to note that real estate performance during a recession can vary widely depending on the specific asset and market conditions. Additionally, a recession can result in a decrease in property values, which may impact real estate investors negatively. It is always advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a professional before making any real estate investment decisions.